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The world’s population is increasing rapidly; it is expected to reach 9 billion people by 2050. With the growing population, planning and preparation for a safe energy future are crucial. Headquartered in Zeist, Utrecht, Aeolis Forecasting Services is a wind and solar forecast provider striving to pioneer innovations in the energy sector. Aeolis emerged from a specialized group within KNMI and transitioned into a private enterprise in 1998.
Carrying a distinctive goal to encourage broader use of meteorological information than broadcasting on different media, Aeolis Forecasting Services actively supports the weather-related industry, especially the energy sector, by fusing its meteorological, statistical, and information technology expertise. The company operates at the confluence of artificial intelligence, climate change, and the energy revolution. It focuses on applied weather forecasting to support the energy sector with short- and medium-range demand forecasting & wind and solar power production forecasting.
The Man with the Vision
Gerard van Noort, the owner of Aeolis Forecasting Service, has had a remarkable journey. During his college years in the 1980s, he became fascinated by artificial intelligence’s potential. So, after completing his graduation, Gerard embarked on his journey to turn this potential into real-world applications. Building successful AI applications requires data, and at the time, enough data wasn’t available.
Gerard’s data search led him to the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI), where a lot of weather and hydrological data were waiting for smart applications. Within months, the first successful applications for water level and wave height forecasting emerged and outperformed numerical prediction models for decades.
Many of the numerical scientists within the KNMI had a hard time appreciating the performance of AI models and the short time it took to develop them. However, a small team dedicated to improving meteorological support for commerce and industry recognized an opportunity for fast success in forecasting retail data concerning the consumption of weather-related products like ice cream, water, beer, and many others. Following the first successful initiatives, the government ordered the KNMI management to discontinue the commercial initiative since the commercial services did not align with the KNMI’s public image. That catalyzed the beginnings of Aeolis Forecasting Services as an innovative endeavor.
Surmounting the Challenges Like a Pro!
In the initial phase, one of the key energy suppliers in the Netherlands approached Gerard van Noort. The energy markets faced a huge change where supply and demand needed to align in a day-ahead market. They were looking for an accurate electricity demand forecast to control market costs. This led Gerard and his team to develop the demand forecasting system Prognos to provide accurate demand forecasting in the electricity and gas markets. Twenty-five years later, the system is still active in the Dutch markets. As the contribution of renewable energy resources like wind and solar to the energy mix gradually increased, they also developed wind and solar power production forecasting systems, which are currently their main activity.
The Significance of Sustainability and Green Technologies
Gerard and his colleagues have seen how renewable resources have affected the daily and intraday energy markets over the past few decades. Several market participants have filed for bankruptcy due to imprecise supply and demand forecasts. Like no other market, the energy market is driven by technology. Forecast accuracy and information edge will determine tomorrow’s winners and losers. Weather service companies compete intensely to determine the best combinations of modeling strategies, data resources, and information technology to provide the most accurate forecasting possible.
Remarkably enough, within a modest budget, as high-cost, high-performance are still not required in most markets. To attract investors for the huge investments involved in wind and solar projects, governments tend to keep the balancing costs at a low level, controversially by persisting in fossil fuel-powered plants. However, climate change will claim its toll, and increased taxation of CO2 emissions is ultimately inevitable, resulting in a higher value of renewable resources and balancing costs. Another year of even more extreme weather events in large economies will trigger such a policy change. The balancing costs will raise the demand for next-level forecasting solutions.
Notable Collaborations – At a Glance
Collaboration and partnerships are vital to innovation and growth. Aeolis initiated collaboration with a technology partner with unique capabilities in the sector. Together with this partner, the firm is confident that it can make a difference. The team is currently looking at partnering with a well-known business with global visibility; such cooperation benefits both parties.
Areas of Focus for Aeolis Forecasting Services
They are strategically working on two different paths. The first track aims to achieve volume by simply outperforming the competition one step ahead. However, the dedicated team at Aeolis was able to restructure the entire production line through self-reflection and analysis of their performance compared to the competition and meet that goal. They stay in close contact with the customers to monitor customer value and are ready to scale up on confirmation.
The second track is more ambitious and aims to outperform the competition beyond one step ahead. This approach focuses on using numerical weather models with ultra-high resolution to forecast electricity output at the turbine level instead of the park level. This method is more costly because it requires a lot more resources than standard solutions. However, the first projects demonstrate that the customer value of this forecasting solution easily outweighs the expenditures by ten times, even in a mild penalty system.
Striking a Fine Balance Between Profitability and Sustainability
The sector’s growth is not a target but the result of standing out from the competition. Innovation and research are key to reaching that level of competitiveness. Once this level has been reached, as Gerard van Noort believes, it is time to roll out the products globally. This can be done through digital marketing and low-threshold customer solutions or in partnership with a globally active partner who shares the same belief that high-performance forecasting is not only necessary but required for the impending energy transition.
Suggestions for Aspiring Innovators
Gerard thinks that for aspiring innovators to make a difference in sustainable technology and weather forecasting, they must understand that they’re joining a global community of smart and motivated scientists focused on advancing the energy transition. He believes that standing out in this competitive field requires creating innovative solutions that genuinely help. Keeping their algorithms secret and finding supportive audiences is extremely crucial, but if they manage to do this, they can make a significant impact on the world and its future.
